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dc.contributor.authorKľúčik, Miroslav
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-24T09:38:13Z
dc.date.available2016-10-24T09:38:13Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.citationEkonomický časopis. 2013, roč. 61, č. 3, p. 270-282.cs
dc.identifier.issn0013-3035cs
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10084/112173
dc.description.abstractComposite leading indicators serve to the purpose of early identification of the stage of business cycle and its turning points. The indicators are constructed on the basis of statistical analysis for predicting the phase of business cycle via the VARX model approach. The model of Slovakia is composed of three variables: gross domestic product as reference series (endogenous variable), composite leading indicator for the domestic economy (endogenous variable) and composite leading indicator of external environment (exogenous variable). The quality of the model is verified using statistical tests of stationarity and causality of variables and tests of residuals. The VARX model exhibits some ability to adapt to changes of the business cycle, but the quantitative projections are rather unable to predict accurately the turning points.cs
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherSlovenská akadémia vied. Ekonomický ústavcs
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEkonomický časopiscs
dc.relation.urihttps://www.sav.sk/journals/uploads/0621144403 13 Klucik+RS.pdf
dc.subjectbusiness cyclecs
dc.subjectVARX modelcs
dc.subjectleading indicatorscs
dc.subjectsmall economycs
dc.subjectSlovakiacs
dc.titleVARX model using leading cyclescs
dc.typearticlecs
dc.type.statusPeer-reviewedcs
dc.description.sourceWeb of Sciencecs
dc.description.volume61cs
dc.description.issue3cs
dc.description.lastpage282cs
dc.description.firstpage270cs
dc.identifier.wos000319719300004cs


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