Determinants of economic growth: Panel data analysis of OPEC

Abstract

The article deals with the study of the determinants of economic growth of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which are all developing countries. The issue is examined because the organization affects the price of oil worldwide. Panel data analysis with the random effects model is used. The panel data analysis examines the relationship between GDP and the selected determinants from 1980 to 2019. The analysed data are non-standard. They are affected by volatility, missing values, and credibility. For example, countries such as Venezuela, Iran, or Iraq may provide data which can distort the analysis. The results show a correlation of a total of five variables. The correlation has both positive and negative effects on GDP. Daily oil production, oil exports and oil prices positively affect GDP, contributing to GDP growth. Unemployment and exchange rate have a negative effect. No correlation was found between inflation, population growth, oil demand, and GDP. The analysis can be used as a basis for future decision-making by OPEC Member economies.