On risk and market sentiments driving financial share price dynamics

Abstract

The goal is to investigate the dynamics of banks’ share prices and related financials that lead to potential disruptions to credit and the economy. We adopt a classic macroeconomic equilibrium model with households, banks, and non-financial companies and explain both market valuations and endogenous debt constraints in terms of risk. Heterogeneous market dynamics ranging from equilibrium to cycles and chaos are illustrated. Deposits and equity are proven to be management levers for chaos control/anticontrol, and the only feasible equilibrium is unstable. Finally, using real-world data, a test is conducted on the suggested model proving that our framework conforms well to reality.