Macroeconomic dynamics in Macedonia and Slovakia: structural estimation and comparison

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Show simple item record Melecký, Martin 2012-08-28T08:54:03Z 2012-08-28T08:54:03Z 2012
dc.identifier.citation Economic modelling. 2012, vol. 29, issue 4, p. 1377-1387. cs
dc.identifier.issn 0264-9993
dc.description.abstract This paper estimates a structural macroeconomic model using data for Macedonia and Slovakia to characterize possible challenges Macedonia can face concerning macroeconomic stabilization during its transition process. A comparison of the estimated model parameters suggests that, in Slovakia, the output gap is less sensitive to real interest rate movements and prices experience greater inertia. The estimated monetary policy reaction functions show Macedonia and Slovakia as inflation targeters, with Macedonia as the more conservative one, despite its officially applied exchange rate targeting regime. The differences in the estimated parameters imply differing transmission mechanisms for Macedonia and Slovakia. Consequently, the variance of domestic variables in Slovakia is most influenced by monetary policy shocks, while there is no single dominating shock explaining the volatility of Macedonia's macroeconomic variables. The exchange rate shock, the monetary policy shock and the demand shock are jointly important in determining the volatility of Macedonia's variables. The model simulations indicate that Macedonia experiences lower output gap and inflation volatility than Slovakia. This comes, nevertheless, at the cost of higher interest rate and real exchange rate volatility in Macedonia, which could be an indication of more volatile financial markets with possible negative implications for financial stability. cs
dc.language.iso en cs
dc.publisher Elsevier cs
dc.relation.ispartofseries Economic modelling cs
dc.relation.uri cs
dc.subject structural open-economy model cs
dc.subject Bayesian estimation cs
dc.subject Eastern European transition economies cs
dc.title Macroeconomic dynamics in Macedonia and Slovakia: structural estimation and comparison cs
dc.type article cs
dc.identifier.location Není ve fondu ÚK cs
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.021
dc.type.status Peer-reviewed cs
dc.description.source Web of Science cs
dc.description.volume 29 cs
dc.description.issue 4 cs
dc.description.lastpage 1387 cs
dc.description.firstpage 1377 cs
dc.identifier.wos 000306299900046

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