Analýza vlivu demografických faktorů na dlouhodobou reálnou úrokovou sazbu ve vybraných zemích OECD

Abstract

A frequently discussed topic is the decline (or long-term stagnation) of real interest rates in developed countries. Since the global financial crisis, real interest rates have been negative in many developed economies. Implementing monetary policies in response to the global financial crisis should be an explanatory phenomenon in the time of abnormally low real interest rates. However, interest rates in many countries have been falling for more than two decades. This fact suggests that other, even more critical, influences are the cause of this phenomenon. Results of panel regression show, that demographic characteristics such as life expectancy or share of people over 65 year old influence 19 developed countries' interest rates in 1980-2018. These findings are crucial for central banks and other authorities since they suggest that traditional transmission channels might be invalid.