Analýza devizového kurzu CZK/EUR pomocí ekonometrických metod

Abstract

The main aim of this Diploma thesis is the identification of determinants which have an impact on the development of the foreign exchange rate CZK/EUR and then to estimate their impact using the econometrics methods. The conclusions are then compared with the teoretic knowledges.

The content of the Diploma thesis is focused on the analysis of the foreign exchange rate CZK/EUR using econometric methods. The theoretical part consists of general knowledge regarding the currency markets, foreign exchange rates and the process of econometric modeling. In the practical part is examined the influence of selected factors on the development of the foreign exchange rate CZK/EUR in the selected period 2002-2011. Effect of selected factors, whose selection is based on the generally applied theory to the evolution of exchange rates is researched through methods of regression and correlation analysis. These methods allow to verify the statistical dependence among the selected variables. By testing it was confirmed the influence of selected factors, „change in monetary reserve growth and change of the rate growth of real product“, on the development of the foreign exchange rate. The findings correspond to the knowledge which the theory shows.