Zhodnocení a predikce finančního zdraví podniku v polygrafickém průmyslu pomocí vybraného bonitního a bankrotního modelu

Abstract

The aim of the diploma thesis is to evaluate financial performance of the company Tiskárna Grafico s.r.o. by selected solvency and bankruptcy model during 2008 – 2013 and on their basis predict evolution of the financial situation of the company for the year 2015. Techniques of financial analysis, such as horizontal and vertical analysis, analysis by financial ratios, pyramidal decomposition and analysis of influences and predictive models, are described in the theoretical part. Furthermore, attention is focused on possibilities of financial values prediction by selected stochastic processes and simulation of random evolution by the Monte Carlo method. Company Tiskárna Grafico s.r.o. is characterized in the practical part, there is done financial analysis and financial performance is evaluated by selected solvency and bankruptcy models. The company is compared with the industry in which is located. Furthermore a pyramidal decomposition is done by selected predictive models, variances are count using functional method. Later future values are predicted using geometric Brownian model and Vašíček model. For values simulation for the year 2014 is used Monte Carlo simulation method. Furthermore a sensitivity analysis is done for indicator with the biggest influence on the model.