Lebenszyklus von Shopping-Center-Konzepten-Methodischer Ansatz zur Prognose von Revitalisierungszeitpunkten

Abstract

The intention of this research had been the development of a methodical approach to forecast the point of time, a revitalization of shopping centers is necessary. The development and revision of this approach is basing on available research papers on success factors, on real estate development and on real estate management of shopping centers, as well as empirical values from shopping center practice. The center of this approach is a theoretical paradigm, which is explained an made plausible on the recent grade of shopping center research within the first two chapters. Chapter Three is focusing on the research of required data to evaluate all determining factors, that are proved as relevant. Therfor a survey with real estate and retail experts has been made. Finally in chapter Four the raised data will be tested on their effects in several scenarios and an exemplarily exercise of the methodical approach is made on a shopping center. Even the general problems of a forecast cannot be removed and all input data will be subject to the individual case of each shopping center, the pictured approach will deliver food for thoughts, to take the chance of a forecast and to disburden the process by splitting up in particular analyses.