Aplikace metodologie CorporateMetrics na firmu ve vybraném odvětví

Abstract

Abstrakt The objective of the thesis is the application of the CorporateMetrics methodology at the company in the selected sectors, ie. determine the risk of changes in economic loss for the period 2011th. Risk is quantified by Earning at Risk methodology at the profit for the period of the Mika a. s. corp. The work is divided into three parts. The first part describes the main steps and principles of the CorporateMetrics methodology, mainly to the issue of model input parameters, financial modeling and statistical verification. In the end of this chapter are ways of quantifying risk, mainly calculation of theValue at Risk principles and methods The second part describes the MIKA a. s. company to which is applied CorporateMetrics methodology. End of this part is focus to company plans and financial flows. In the last section is estimate the financial flows risks. In the first step is description risk factors and estimation its models. Risk factors are currency pairs CZK / EUR CZK / LTL CZK / HUF, CZK / BGN and Prague Interbank Offered PRIBOR +3 M. With the established models is estimate the development of the risk factors for 2011th by Monte Carlo simulation. Next is estimated an earnings for each currency pairs and estimate company operating profit. In the end of this part is estimated PRIBOR +3M which is predicted changes in interest costs and this issues is use to estimate to the financial activities profit. The sum of operating and financial results is an estimate of the profit for the year 2011th. In the end is result of the Earning at Risk value.