Vliv cen energií na importní ceny a inflaci a jejich role v transmisním mechanismu monetární politiky

Abstract

This thesis analyses the impact of energy prices on inflation and import prices within the monetary policy transmission mechanism. The analysis focuses on a panel of 21 advanced economies over the period 2000-2023 using monthly frequency data. The theoretical section describes the monetary policy transmission mechanism with an emphasis on the exchange rate channel, which then forms the basis of the econometric analysis. This is based on a fixed effects panel regression model, supplemented by an instrumental variables method. The results clearly show that energy price increases have a significant and direct impact on inflation, with the nominal exchange rate also playing an important role. At the same time, the price of oil is found to have a stronger impact on inflation than the price of natural gas. The analysis shows that energy shocks are a key factor in the inflation dynamics and monetary stability of the countries under study.