Research on Overseas Investment Risk Management of Chinese Renewable Energy Enterprises

Abstract

As the global energy structure accelerates its transformation toward decarbonization and clean energy, Chinese enterprises have increasingly expanded their "going global" strategies by actively investing in overseas renewable energy projects. However, the complex and diverse national risks in host countries have become a critical factor affecting the success of such investments. To scientifically identify and systematically evaluate these risks, this study develops a multi-level investment risk management framework encompassing both macro- and micro-level dimensions. In terms of national risk assessment, this study constructs a comprehensive indicator system by integrating multiple dimensions, including political, economic, social, environmental, legal institutions, and China-related relations. Drawing upon authoritative frameworks such as the World Bank's WGI, BERI, EIU, and CROIC, the system incorporates fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), expert scoring, and triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) to assign weights to risk factors. Furthermore, criteria according to the simple additive weighted (SAW). The hybrid model FAHP-SAW quantify risk levels of key overseas investment countries, categorises risk grades, and conducts trend and comparative analyses. The empirical analysis, based on a sample of renewable energy target countries, validates the scientific soundness and applicability of the model. At the project level, this study develops a hierarchical risk indicator system for renewable energy projects, covering dimensions such as economic feasibility, policy support, environmental impact, technological maturity, and social acceptability. By applying the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to construct interdependent factor structures and integrating Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) to handle uncertainty in expert opinions, the model facilitates fuzzy quantitative analysis of project risks. A case study of a solar power project in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is conducted using the proposed ANP-FCE evaluation model. The results show that the overall risk level of the project lies in the low range. This analysis not only verifies the robustness, applicability, and effectiveness of the model, but also provides practical insights and methodological guidance for similar projects in comparable regions. The main contributions of this study are: An analysis of the development and existing problems of REOI due to investment status and trends. (2) Identification and proposal of the China's REOI risk assessment hierarchical index system risks. (3) Proposal of a country risk assessment hybrid model, FAHP-SAW, reflecting fuzzy weights, combining the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) with the simple additive weighting method (SAW). (4) Empirical verification and evaluation of the selected twenty important countries for China's REOI investment. (5) Proposal of a REOI project evaluation hybrid model, ANP-FCE based on fuzzy input criteria, combining the fuzzy analytical network process (ANP) with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE). (6) Evaluation of a concrete solar power investment project in the UAE, low-risk countries, applying the ANP-FCE model, including the result robustness verification.