Inflační očekávání: teorie a praxe ve vybraných zemích

Abstract

The bachelor's thesis deals with the approaches evaluation of the measurement of inflation expectations of selected central banks. It focuses on the measurement approaches of the Czech National Bank, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve. It also investigates how the results of the actual inflation rate differ from the expected inflation rate. The bachelor thesis is divided into theoretical and practical part. The first half of the theoretical part defines the basic concepts related to inflation and inflation expectations. The second part of the theoretical part is devoted to a comparison of approaches to measuring inflation expectations based on established criteria, such as: monetary policy objective, measurement subjects, number of professional forecasters, number of households, measurement time horizon for professional forecasters and measurement time horizon for households. In the practical part, a description was made of the deviations of the actual inflation rate from the expected inflation rate over the period from 2001 to 2022. Subsequently, a comparison was made in terms of the accuracy of the estimate, the average of the estimate, etc. The main finding is that professional forecasters' inflation expectations tend to be more accurate than households' expectations. The most accurate group of professional forecasters come from the Czech Republic. Households' inflation expectations tend to be higher than professional forecasters', with the highest being found for households in the euro area. Households usually estimate the inflation rate for the next period based on the current inflation rate, whereas professional forecasters use different models for forecasting.