Ocenenie podniku z odvetvia e-commerce výnosovou metódou s využitím simulačných techník

Abstract

This diploma thesis focuses on the valuation of a selected company operating in the online retail segment in the Central European region. The aim is to determine the value of equity of the selected company as of 1 January 2025 using the income-based DCF-Entity method, with revenue forecasting based on a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. The thesis is divided into five chapters. The introduction specifies the objective and structure of the thesis. The second chapter presents the valuation methodology, which is then applied in the practical part. The third chapter characterizes the selected company, a dominant player in the Central European e-commerce market, and presents its financial analysis, a revenue forecast based on a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 trajectories, and the company valuation using the DCF method. In the fourth chapter, the results were subjected to distributional analysis, sensitivity analysis, cross-validation with market multiples, and a test of economic consistency. Based on the results, the value of equity of the selected company as of 1 January 2025 amounts to CZK 75,974 million, with a 90% probability that it lies in the interval from CZK 64,154 to CZK 86,095 million. In summary, the selected company is financially sound with a strong market position and prospects for further growth, while the resulting value of equity is contingent on the model's input assumptions.