Predikce ceny lithia

Abstract

This diploma thesis focuses on the mineral raw material – lithium, the specific objective is to analyse the price development of a selected traded compound, lithium carbonate (Li2CO3), and subsequent price prediction. The main factors influencing the price of lithium and their interdependence are presented in the paper, the price analysis was performed on annual, monthly and daily time series. Holt's exponential smoothing method was chosen for the forecast the lithium price, and the prediction was made for the time series of annual prices (for a three-year period) and monthly prices (for the following 18 months). The implemented prediction of monthly prices, which according to the results is more reliable, approximates a downward trend for the selected future period, which also corresponds with the current development of the lithium market and the expectations of some financial companies.