Analýza faktorů ovlivňujících cenu ropy po roce 2020

Abstract

The bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of factors influencing oil price dynamics in the period after 2020, which has been characterized by significant volatility and unprecedented market shocks. The theoretical part defines crude oil as a strategic commodity, describes its physical and chemical properties, refining processes, and pricing mechanisms on commodity and financial markets. Particular attention is paid to the role of financial derivatives, market structure, and the relationship between physical and “paper” oil trading. The analytical part aims to quantify the impacts of key events, especially the COVID-19 pandemic, the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, and changes in the global macroeconomic environment. Statistical methods are applied, including historical volatility calculation and regression analysis of relationships between oil prices and selected macroeconomic indicators. The thesis also evaluates the influence of OPEC+ policies, structural changes in demand, and factors related to the energy transition.