A Platform Independent Web-Application for Short-Term Electric Power Load Forecasting on a 33/11 kV Substation Using Regression Model

Abstract

Short-term electric power load forecasting is a critical and essential task for utilities of the elec- tric power industry for proper energy trading and that enable the independent system operator to operate the network without any technical and economical is- sues. In this paper, machine learning model such as linear regression model is used to forecast the active power load one hour and one day ahead. Real time active power load data to train and test the machine learning model is collected from a 33/11 kV substation located in Telangana State, India. Based on the simu- lation results, it is observed that linear regression model can forecast the load with less mean absolute error i.e. 0.042 with training data and 0.045 with testing data in comparison with support vector regressor model for an hour ahead operation. Whereas in the case of the day ahead operation, linear regression model can forecast the load with less mean absolute error i.e. 0.055 with training data and 0.057 with testing data in comparison with support vector regressor model. A platform independent web application is developed to help the operators of the 33/11 kV substation which is located in Godishala, Telangana State, India.