Stanovení pravděpodobnosti úpadku firem v České republice dle scóringového modelu

Abstract

The topic of the thesis is determination of probability of default firms in the Czech Republic by scoring model. The main objective of the thesis is to create a scoring model to determine the probability of default of firms operating in the Czech Republic using the binary logistic regression and its subsequent verification. The thesis is divided into five main chapters, of which the first and the last is devoted to introduction and conclusion. The second chapter describes the methodology of financial analysis, including the sources of information, the basic methods, and the major part is devoted to the analysis of financial ratios. The third chapter is devoted to the description of the failure prediction models, and describes methods of scoring prediction models, such as discrimination, regression analysis and logistic regression. At the end of this chapter are provided examples of selected rating and default models. The fourth chapter, representing the practical part is devoted to the preparation and application scoring model by binary logistic regression using the statistical program IBM SPSS Statistics 21. The last fifth charter forms the conclusion, in which is included an evaluation of the results.