Predikce finanční výkonnosti ve vybrané společnosti

Abstract

The aim of the diploma thesis is evaluation and prediction of financial performance in a given company by Economic Value Added. Financial performance is evaluated by Economic Value Added based on EVA-equity for the years 2010 – 2015. Then is performed prediction of EVA for another year 2016 based on constructed financial plan and application of simulation method Monte Carlo. The teoretical part of diploma thesis contains methodological approaches to measurement of financial performance and procedures leading to the prediction Economic Value Added. First part of the charter is focused on cost of capital, pyramidal decomposition, analysis of variance. The second part is focused on the posibility of prediction Economical Value Added, financial planning, simulation of random evolution using method Monte Carlo. Practical part of diploma thesis includes evaluation financial performance in a given company through Economic Value Added, pyramidal decomposition EVA, company is compared with the sector. Further is applied prediction of Economical Value Added for the year 2016. Base is determine cost of capital, estimation of revenues by simulation method Monte Carlo and Geometric Brownian Motion. Then is constructed financial plan and then is performed estimation of the Economic Value Added in the year 2016 by simulation method Monte Carlo. Finally is applied sensitivity analysis and there are total evaluation of the results prediction Economic Value Added.