Vliv ekonomického sentimentu na ekonomiky vybraných zemí

Abstract

This diploma thesis examines the relationship between the economic sentiment indicator and selected macroeconomic variables. This relationship is investigated using Granger causality and the VAR models will be estimated for selected Western and Eastern Europe countries, specifically for Germany, France, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. The role of trust is crucial in the sense that people derive their future actions and expectations according to their current mood. The trust can determine for example future consumption, investments, or savings of economic entities. The theoretical part of the thesis focuses mainly on the role of trust in the society. Also, there are presented possible ways of measuring trust. The role of expectations in the economy and the role of rational behavior will be described. The conclusion of the theoretical part is devoted to the description of similar works from the past. The third chapter presents individual macroeconomic indicators. These variables are economic sentiment, unemployment, inflation, retail sales, industrial and construction output. There will be a graphical representation of the collected data and their description. The methodology of research is introduced in the fourth chapter. Before the analysis of the relationship between economic sentiment and macroeconomic indicators, the stationarity is tested, and the optimal delay of time series is chosen. Then the Granger causality will be examined, the VAR model will be estimated, and I-R analysis will be performed for selected countries. At the end of the empirical part, the results will be compared between selected countries. The final chapter of this thesis summarizes the results and outlines further paths and questions for future research.