Vybrané problémy fiskální politiky ve vyspělých zemích

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to verify, if there is crowding-out effect in the Visegrad Group countries (V4) and based on it to assess the effectiveness of fiscal policy. To achieve this goal, first, the main theoretical approaches to fiscal policy during the development of economic theory are described, and also the various obstacles and failure of fiscal policy, including the theory of crowding-out effect, are explained. This is followed by research of empirical literature focused on fiscal issues and crowding-out effect. Verification of the occurrence of crowding-out effect is accomplished by assembling four regression models (for the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia) quarterly time series for 2002-2015. The dependent variable is determined by gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which approximates private investments and independent variables are government expenditures, GDP and interest rates. Variable GDP has been removed, because of multicollinearity and, on the other hand, delayed variable GFCF has been added, because of autocorrelation. The results show that in the V4 countries does not occur crowding-out effect, but on the contrary has been showned crowding-in effect of government spending on private investment, which is in consistent with Keynesian theory.