Přístupy k tvorbě předpovědí nezávislé poptávky v průmyslovém podniku

Abstract

The forecasts are one of the most important inputs to make managerial decisions. [11] It may concern for example a forecast creation of a demand level, a sales level or a consumption level. The process of the forecast creation is crucial for an entire company. The forecast process generates the essential inputs for the processes regarding a planning, a managerial decision making, a management and a control, and that in the all functional parts of the company. The basic functional parts of a company are the marketing, the sales, the production – the purchasing, the logistics and the finance – the accounting.

For the design purposes of an efficient system to plan and to make the managerial decisions, or if you like to manage and to control, it’s a crucial input a demand level forecast or a consumption level forecast.

The each system to plan and to make the managerial decisions, or if you like to manage and to control, should be based on a system to analyze and to forecast a demand level or a consumption level. The character of a demand or a consumption and its level in the particular time periods plays the important role to select an approach to forecast. It’s necessary to distinguish between a dependent demand and an independent demand, when the systems to forecast are designed to generate the independent demand forecast, from which the dependent demand is subsequently unwinded.

The general purpose of this dissertation thesis is the creation of the methodology for a design of the system to forecast an independent demand level in an industrial company. The created methodology should be usable to create the systems for the independent demand (consumption) level forecasting. These systems to forecast should be used as the inputs for the systems to plan and to make managerial decisions or if you like to manage and to control, and that in the particular functional parts of an industrial company

The general purpose of the dissertation thesis is unwrapped to a few partial goals that are:

1. the creation of the theoretical part of the dissertation thesis which would contain a summary of knowledge of the demand theory field and also from the forecasts creation theory field and that all on the basis of the foreign literature and the inland literature too,

2. the creation of the universal methodology to create the system to forecast an independent demand level in an industrial company, which would be formed itself by a succession of the general steps to design a system of an independent demand level forecast creation,

3. the creation of the universal approaches of the independent demand level forecasting, on their base would be possible to create a system to forecast of the independent demand (consumption) level and that all under a concrete conditions of a concrete industrial company,

4. an application of the created methodology to design the system to create an independent demand level forecast under conditions of the food production plant of the join stock company HAME.