Aplikace technické analýzy na burzovním indexu ve fázi recese

Abstract

The aim of this diploma thesis is to explore the possibility of application of technical analysis through selected technical indicators on stock market index in a recession. Verification is performed on NASDAQ Composite index in a recession from 14.7.2008 to 15.6.2009. Testing will be undertaken in MetaStock software. The aim of the testing will be to find optimal setting for selected indicators (Classic Moving Average Penetration, Exponential Moving Average, CrossOver Moving Average, Relative Strength Index (70/30) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence. The diploma thesis is divided into five chapters, while the first one is introduction and the last one is conclusion. The diploma thesis is divided into five chapters, while the first one is introduction and the last one is conclusion. Fundamental information about technical analysis and its postulates are described in this chapter. Particular attention is given to patterns and technical indicators, furthermore technical and fundamental analysis are compared in this chapter. Methods for estimating random development of financial assets are introduced in this chapter as well. Third chapter is focused on financial markets, their history, development as well as description of prevailing trends on recent financial markets are described in this chapter. Next part of this chapter is dedicated to stock markets, exchanges, shares and stock market indexes. Index NASDAQ Composite is described in the end of this chapter. This index is a subject of testing in the application part. Setting and performance of selected technical indicators is examined in the fourth chapter. MetaStock software is used for testing. The aim of this testing is to find optimal setting of selected technical indicators. Results are evaluated with respect to their average yield, volatility and from their suitability to particular types of investors.