Modelování rizik terorismu

Abstract

The dissertation thesis focuses on the issue of terrorism risk, with special regards to the conditions and needs of the non-state actors in the Czech Republic. The primary objective of the thesis is to propose a methodological standard for modelling of the risks of terrorism in the Czech Republic. Based on the review of the relevant scientific publications, theoretical insight, practical professional experience and implemented comparative analysis of available methodological approaches for risk modelling of this specific area of security research, an approach based on the multidimensional statistical methods, specifically the factor analysis and K-means clustering method, was chosen, The input variables of the model are 24 selected criteria of the terrorist incidents in the European Union countries in the period of 2001 - 2017, segmented from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). A methodological standard based on factor and cluster analysis provides an objective and human-independent classification of the impact of different terrorist attacks. To estimate probability, as a second essential component for the risk calculation, the proposed standard uses a modified security level system based on a logical quantitative-qualitative analysis of the pre-set criteria. The probability calculation also takes into account the level of current overall threat of the country according to the levels announced by the government, as well as individual temporary or permanent factors that can both increase and decrease the probability of an attack. Implementation of this standard can address the absence of an agreed, integrated methodology for determining the risks of terrorism in the Czech Republic. At the same time, it may bring a more effective approach to the protection of soft targets and other subjects at risk of a potential act of terrorism. The dissertation thesis also recommends specific measures to ensure that consistent quantitative data are available for security research, as a desired output of the Czech and international public institutions involved in this area. Complementary output of the thesis is new theoretical insight and practical information that can be used in the assessment of security risks and threats not only in the Czech Republic, but also in other countries of the European Union.