Zhodnocení a predikce finanční výkonnosti společnosti Trestles, a. s. pomocí ekonomické přidané hodnoty

Abstract

The aim of the diploma thesis is evaluation and prediction of the financial performance of the Trestles, a. s. company by Economic Value Added. Financial performance of the Trestles, a. s. company is evaluated by Economic Value Added based on EVA-equity for the years 2008 – 2013. Afterwards is performed prediction of Economic Value Added on the next period 2014 – 2016 based on the compiled financial plan and application of Monte Carlo simulation method. Theoretical and methodological chapter is divided into two parts and includes a financial analysis methods along with possible approaches to financial performance measurement and the prediction of possible Economic Value Added. The first part describes the ratio analysis, pyramidal decomposition, analysis of variance and sensitivity analysis, with put emphasis on possible approaches to financial performance measurement, Economic Value Added and cost of capital. The second part is focused on the prediction of possible Economic Value Added, financial planning, regression analysis and simulation of random evolution using Monte Carlo method and stochastic processes. The practical part of the diploma thesis includes the characteristics of Trestles, a. s. company, ratio analysis, evaluation of the financial performance by Economic Value Added, pyramidal decomposition indicator EVA and analysis of variance. The resulting values are compared with the industry and competitive company Kovatom, s. r. o. Put emphasis on the prediction of the Economic Value Added. The basis is determination of sales Trestles, a. s. company by Monte Carlo simulation method and Geometric Brown motion using the share in total sales in the industry. Afterwards there is compiled simplified financial plan, determined the default parameters for calculation indicator EVA and then is performed estimation of the Economic Value Added in years 2014 – 2016. Finally is realized sensitivity analysis of the indicator Economic Values Added and there are evaluated prediction results of Economic Value Added along with recommendations for corporate management of Trestles, a. s. comapany.