Návrh a analýza epidemiologického modelu pro predikci vývoje COVID-19

Abstract

The objective of this thesis was a detailed analysis of one of the available mathematical models for the prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic in various countries in the world. Apart from the analysis of the mathematical model itself this thesis also contains a detailed description of various mathematical methods used in epidemiology for population growth modelling and detailed information about the COVID-19 disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Another part of this thesis was the analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic development on a regional and global scale based on available historical data. The analysis of the model was carried out mainly in comparison with actual data about the COVID-19 epidemic development in the world. To achieve objective results a prediction for 50 countries was made using a chosen logistic model. Data obtained by these predictions were then analysed and conclusions were made about the accuracy of predictions generated by the chosen model. The parameters of the logistic function were described in detail, and they were analysed from the perspective of their development in time. The practical part of this thesis was conducted in the MATLAB program environment.