Hospodářský cyklus: teorie a skutečnost

Abstract

Objective of this thesis was to assess potential of some of the business cycle theories to explain rise or evolution of a real-life business cycle. This thesis incorporates theoretical explanation of few business cycle theories. Emphasis is mainly put on Austrian Business Cycle Theory. The other theories specified in the thesis are Keynesian, monetarist, new classical economics, RBC and new Keynesian. Predictions about the state of the US economy between 2002 and 2008 from the point of view of mainstream and Austrian economics is also taken into account. It appears that the Austrians predicted collapse of the housing prices, resulting impact on banking system and overall economy much better than the mainstream schools of thought. It was also concluded that Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle can be successfully used to explain housing boom and subsequent run-up to the recession of 2008 - 2009. On bases of this can be said that business cycles can appear as a result of existence of the fractional reserve banking system. Through further analysis of the economy after 2009 it can be established that unconventional monetary policy used from the middle of the Great Recession up until the end of 2015 probably led to speculative mania in the financial asset markets. It can be said that the improvement of the situation regarding the business cycles might be improved through diminishing interventions of the central bank into the economy.