Aplikace Balassova – Samuelsonova modelu na vybrané země Eurozóny

Abstract

The main goal of this thesis is to assess and quantify the Balassa – Samuelson Effect in case of Eastern and Central European countries based on regression and correlation analysis. Balassa – Samuelson Effect is tested as an imperfection between nominal and real convergence. The thesis is divided into three chapters except for an introduction and conclusion. The first chapter defines a theoretical background of nominal convergence, real convergece and Balassa – Samuelson model. The second chapter assess criteria of nominal and real convergence, at the end of the chapter the synthesis of indicators of nominal and real convergence is calculated. The nominal convergence is calculated toward Euro Area and against Maatricht criteria, the real convergence is calculated against Euro Area. Based on these indicators it is estimated a linear trend equation for all countries and it is tested the statistical relevance of these trends by F-test, t-test and R-squared. Balassa – Samuelson Effect is tested as a regressional model in which the dependent variable is real convergence and independent variable is nominal convergence, the statistical significance is assessed by F-test, t-test and R-squared. For quantification of this impact is the Pearson correlation coefficient used. The Balassa – Samuelson Effect was not proven for all analysed countries.