Třídy aktiv a ekonomický cyklus

Abstract

This thesis deals with investigation and evaluation of relationships between asset classes (stocks, obligations, crude oil and gold) and economic cycle represented by real GDP and also inflation. All observations take place in conditions of USA economy. These relationships are validated on the basis of enunciated premises (hypotheses) by using correlation analysis and Granger causality test. The main goal was to verify or falsify the truthfulness of the statements by discovering the measure of tightness of linear dependence and unidirectional causalities. Expectations about relationships between assets and inflation were confirmed, but expectations about relationships between assets and real GDP were confirmed only partially.