Vliv měnové politiky na trh s bydlením v České republice

Abstract

The objective of this bachelor thesis is to examine the influence of monetary policy, represented by the PRIBOR 3M rate, on the growth rate of real estate prices (apartment prices per m²) in the Czech Republic from 2007 to 2024. The study focuses on regional differences using data at a quarterly frequency. This issue was examined because recent studies have not addressed the post-crisis periods (the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the energy crisis) or explored the influence across individual regions, focusing instead on the national level. The empirical analysis was performed using panel data regression with fixed effects, with the model developed in the R software environment. The model results showed the highest statistical significance for the PRIBOR rate with a lag of five quarters, which corresponds to the monetary policy transmission. Furthermore, high statistical significance was found for the variables: unemployment rate, migration balance, and wage growth. An increase in the rate cools down the pace of price growth, although this observation is heterogeneous across regions. The highest sensitivity was found in Prague; however, this effect was also proven in other regions. The thesis concludes that the CNB can effectively limit the growth rate of real estate prices. Nevertheless, the PRIBOR rate only cools down the demand side and thus does not, by itself, solve the structural problem of insufficient supply and long-term housing unaffordability in the Czech Republic. Therefore, cooperation with the fiscal and housing policies of the government and municipalities is necessary.