Evropská měnová unie a perspektivy jejího budoucího vývoje

Abstract

The main goal of this thesis is to predict the future scenarios for the euro area through the theory of optimum currency area. This theory determine the criteria which currency area should fulfil to be considered as an optimum currency area. In this work, the criteria are described and evaluated. Based on an evaluation of the individual criteria, I conclude that the euro area is not an optimum currency area. Better results would achieve sub-currency areas, such as Baltic countries together with Finland or West and Central Europe countries. The most likely scenario seems to be the scenario 'Wait,' which refers about fear of eurozone countries to make a resolut step, such as exclusion fiscally irresponsible members. Because of the same reason, new member states will not to join the euro area.