Modelování dlouhodobé rovnováhy na trhu práce v České republice

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to examine trends for long-term equilibrium relationship between supply side and demand side on the labor market in the Czech Republic from 2001 until 3 quarter of 2010. It is based on the theoretical concept of Beveridge curve, which describes the relationship between unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate. It is usually understood as the result of a balance on the labor market where unemployment inflows and outflows from the pairing process are equal. The mathematical model is derived by using the Cobb-Douglas production function. For the Beveridge curve estimation at the national level were used econometric techniques - the VEC model with Johansen cointegration method and the Engel-Granger method. Then structural and macroeconomic variables were added to the basic model. The convergence to long-term equilibrium relationship is shown for a basic model of labor supply and labor demand. Instead of a negative relationship between the two basic parameters of the Beveridge curve model showed a positive relationship, indicating persistent structural inconsistencies in the national labor market. After adding the unemployment rate of people receiving unemployment benefit, the growth rate of labor force, the growth rate of labor productivity and the real wage index, which was included along with growth rate of the labor force, tendencies to long-term relationship have showed. Simultaneously after adding a third variable in the model an inverse relationship between the job vacancy rate and unemployment rate has showed. Expected long-term relationships usually come in line with the hypotheses.