Endogenita kritérií teorie optimální měnové oblasti – empirická analýza členských států EU

Abstract

The pros and cons of adopting the common currency are still widely debated, so the right decision for countries that have not yet adopted the euro cannot be clearly drawn. The adoption of the euro is also a current issue in the Czech Republic. However, the act itself is largely a political decision. This statement is also indicated by the ignorance of the optimum currency area criteria by the EMU creators. When these criteria are met, the benefits of adopting a common currency exceeds the costs. However, it has been shown that these criteria can be met ex post. The realization of monetary union will lead to an increase of trade intensity between member states. This growing trade intensity further results in greater business cycles synchronization. The results of the analysis performed in this diploma thesis confirm positive effect of growing bilateral trade intensity on the business cycles synchronization. However, this effect is likely to weaken with greater synchronization, but is likely to be stronger in more open economies. The common currency itself could also lead to greater synchronization.