Balassův-Samuelsonův efekt v zemích střední východní Evropy

Abstract

The subject of PhD dissertation is Balassa-Samuelson's (BS) effect. The aim of the thesis is to verify whether Balassa-Samuelson's effect exists in Central and Eastern European countries (CEE), assess its impact on real appreciation of these countries' currencies, and find out whether their size varies in these countries before and after their accession to the EU or not. Two versions of the BS effect - domestic and international - are used to fulfil the aim of the thesis. The BS effect theory is based on a number of assumptions. Nevertheless, these assumptions are often neglected in empirical research. On the other hand, a special attention is given to the fulfilment of the assumptions in this work. If any of the assumptions are invalid, the estimated model needs to be adjusted appropriately. The assumptions test shows that the purchasing power parity theory in the tradable sector in the CEE countries does not apply. In the estimated model, therefore, the nominal exchange rate is replaced directly by the prices of tradable goods. The model itself is then estimated by the ordinary least squares method, for both time-series and for the panel. As concerns the results of the individual models, it can be seen, that the BS effect exists in most CEE countries. The highest values were found for the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In some CEE countries that have not yet introduced the euro, the BS effect may even lead to a failure of the Maastricht convergence criterion for price stability (particularly in Poland, but also in the Czech Republic or Hungary).