Možnosti reakce monetární politiky ČNB na vývoj cen ropy

Abstract

The thesis deals with the development of oil prices as an important strategic raw material in global economic development. It notes the significant changes in oil prices that began in the 70th years and are referred to as oil shocks, and the gradual increase in oil prices at the beginning of the new millennium. It is focused on finding the relationship between oil prices and specific economic variables such as exchange rate and U. S. interest rates. More attention is paid to the development of oil prices over the last 12 years, with an impact on the Czech economy and the level of the exchange rate of the Czech crown. Using the VAR model is based on quarterly data between the years 1998-2012 analyzed the relationship between oil prices and GDP of the Czech Republic, and between oil prices and inflation in the country. In conclusion describes an adequate response of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank on the development of the oil prices.