Dlhodobé rovnovážne vzťahy v malej otvorenej ekonomike ČR a SR

Abstract

The dissertation examines differences in long-run equilibrium relationships for two small open economies that come from the same roots, but are different by the way in which they are incorporated in the euro area – CR and SR. The topic is up to date as the openness of both economies has grown rapidly in recent years, increasing their dependence on the external economic environment. The thesis aims at identifying the differences in the functioning of long-term equilibrium relations for small open economies of CR and SR. To achieve the main objective, the individual partial objectives are determined: quantifying the differences in the functioning of the long-term equilibrium relations for CR and SR, finding out the causes of the differences in the estimated long-term equilibrium relations in CR and SR and quantifying the impact of sentiment indicators on the small open economies of CR and SR. We expected to confirm the similarity of the basic long-term economic relations for CR and SR. At the same time, we assumed that the SR and the euro area are more similar in the area of monetary policy (since SR is part of the euro area since 2009) and also the higher impact of the external economic environment on the Slovak economy (since SR is more open than CR). We also expected confirmation of the significance of the sentiment channel in the transfer of the economic cycle from abroad to the small open economies of CR and SR. The issue has not been addressed by many publications so far, given the short time series. The subject of the survey is the following five long-term equilibrium relationships that characterize a small open economy: international parities – purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, money market equilibrium, and output relation. Derived long-term equilibrium relationships formed the theoretical basis for modeling tools (cointegrating, or structural VAR models), which were used to analyze the dependence of small open economies of CR and SR from economic developments in the euro area. The results confirmed the similarities of the basic long-term economic relations of CR and SR. At the same time, the SR and the euro area were more similar in the area of monetary policy and also the higher influence of the external environment on the economy of SR was confirmed. The work also confirmed the significance of the impact of foreign economic sentiment on the domestic macroeconomic indicators of CR and SR. The main contribution to the field is the comparison of the differences in estimates for the two small open economies as well as inclusion of sentiment indicators into economic models.