Ověření predikční schopnosti bankrotních modelů před úpadkem společnosti

Abstract

The aim of this bachelor’s thesis is to verify the predictive capability of selected bankruptcy models using real data from an engineering company in the period 2007–2017 prior to its insolvency. The first chapter defines the objective and structure of the thesis. The second chapter is devoted to the description of the financial analysis methodology applied in the subsequent chapters. The third chapter presents the characteristics of the company, along with a horizontal and vertical analysis of the balance sheet and the profit and loss statement. The fourth chapter applies financial ratios and selected bankruptcy models. The results of the conducted financial analysis indicate a gradual deterioration of the company’s financial situation and confirm poor strategic decision-making, as the declining trend persisted until the company ceased operations. The highest predictive capability among the bankruptcy models was demonstrated by the Altman model and the Zmijewski model. In contrast, the Taffler model failed to identify in a timely manner the symptoms of the worsening financial condition, as did the IN99 model, which was based on stricter criteria; consequently, it was not possible to distinguish the development of the company’s financial health sufficiently in advance.