Aplikace matematických modelů pro návrh bezpečnostních opatření při hromadných akcích

Abstract

SNOHOVÁ, Adéla. Application of Mathematical Models for the Design of Safety Measures at Mass Events. [Doctoral Dissertation]. Ostrava: VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, Faculty of Safety Engineering, 2024. 133 p. The dissertation deals with the design of procedures and measures that will be applicable in practice and will lead to the modeling of the evacuation of people from mass events in an emergency events using computer models. The methods selected to address the issues in this thesis are to model evacuation using a computer model and then perform a sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method. The theoretical part is devoted to the basic background of mass events. It describes the principles of evacuation of people, factors that can affect the smooth course of mass events or the reactions and movements of people during their evacuation, and input parameters significant to computer models of evacuation of people. This theoretical knowledge formed the basis for the practical part. In the practical part, the evacuation scenario analysis was carried out in two case studies for which three different evacuation scenarios were defined. To bring the model closer to the real behavior of people, the key parameters (movement speed, size, mobility) and their decision-making processes were adjusted. Each scenario was subjected to a series of simulations that took into account the randomness (stochasticity) of the behavior using a Monte Carlo method. The simulation results were generated in various formats such as CSV, text files, and 3D visualizations. These results were then subjected to an analysis that included the evaluation of parameters such as evacuation times, queueing times, occupancy times, occupant density, movement trajectories, and the use of different escape routes from the mass event. At the same time, the procedure for creating design evacuation scenarios and the possible selection of static and dynamic characteristics of people was pointed out through case studies. Based on the results, appropriate preventive organizational measures and appropriate technical and organizational measures in case of emergency at a mass event in relation with computer models for evacuation. The paper concludes by outlining future developments and visions in the field of evacuation of people in relation to the computer models.