Efektivní metody pro modelování a kvantifikaci medicínských rizik

Abstract

This dissertation thesis called Effective methods for modelling and quantifying the medical risks shows and solves methods and procedures of gaining results in classifying patients into one of the several categories of the Phadiatop test based on the detailed personal and family anamneses. It also points out the mistakes made during the medical data collecting. Next, the thesis concentrates on the genetic predispositions for developing atopy and shows the diseases influencing the results of the Phadiatop test. The thesis itself is divided into 8 chapters. The introductory chapter (Chapter 2) is dedicated to the basic theoretical facts about developing atopy, allergies and Phadiatop test. This theory is later used during suggesting of the mathematical methods and modelling the results of the patients classifying. Chapter 3 describes the discrimination using the logistic regression and Chapter 4 is devoted to the prediction into more groups using the multinomial explained variable. This is divided into the possibility of predicting into random categories and ordered categories. Chapter 5 deals with the databases, information about the data and processing the data into a useful statistical sample. Methodology described in Chapters 3 and 4 is applied on the particular data in Chapters 7 and 8. It introduces the methods of the logistic regression for classifying each patient into the “negative” or “positive” groups of the Phadiatop test. Chapter 8 describes the demanding processing of the issues given as it deals with ordinal regression; thus, about classifying each patient into one of the five particular groups of the Phadiatop test according to the seriousness. Chapter 9 provides comprehensive instructions of the ordinal regression usage and shows one particular prediction. Chapter 10 includes the conclusions and recommendations for the patients' prediction into one of the individual Phadiatop test groups. After classifying patients into a particular Phadiatop test group an applet was created in order to be used in surgeries. The applet is available on the attached CD. Chapter 11 deals with the genetic predispositions for the development of atopy.