Identifikace generátorů finanční výkonnosti odvětví a podniků pomocí analýzy rozptylu nelineárních funkcí

Abstract

Doctoral thesis is devoted to financial performance of company and industry. The aim of the thesis is to analyze financial performance of ČEZ, a.s. and energy industry of the Czech Republic. Financial performance selected company and industry is analyzed according to an economic value added indicator. Main value drivers are calculated according to variance decomposition method. Doctoral thesis is divided in seven chapters. After introduction, the first chapter is devoted to the description of the used methods. In this chapter, methods used for evaluating of the financial performance of companies and financial performance of industry are generally defined. Then, the methods of analysis of deviations are described, while greater attention is paid to the method of analysis of variance. This method is used for evaluation of financial performance of ČEZ, a.s. and energy industry of the Czech Republic. The last part of methodology part is devoted to description and characteristics of the methods used for the prediction of economic indicators. In the application part the financial performance of the company ČEZ, a. s. and financial performance of the energy industry in the analyzed period is evaluated. Financial performance of ČEZ, a.s. is analyzed according to economic value added indicator. Main influencing factors are defined according to method of decomposition of variance. For analysis, quarterly data of ČEZ, a.s. in the period 2006 to 2016 were used. Quarterly data in the period 2007 to 2015 were taken from website of Ministry of Industry of the Czech Republic for financial performance analysis of energy industry. According to analysis of financial performance of ČEZ, a.s. company , interest reduction indicator is one of the main value drivers of the ČEZ, a.s. in the analyzed period. According to analysis of financial performance of energy industry of the Czech Republic, return on sales indicator and financial leverage indicator are one of the main value drivers of the energy industry of the Czech Republic in the analyzed period. It can be said that value drivers of the ČEZ, a.s. are identical to value drivers of energy industry of the Czech Republic in the analyzed period. Last part of the application part is dedicated to prediction of the economic value added indicator. For prediction variance gamma process is applied and component ratios of the economic value added are predicted for each quarter of one year. From the results it is clear that variance gamma process is able to credibly capture all four moments of the probability distribution as mean value, variance, skewness and kurtosis.