Polsko v procesu evropské měnové integrace

Abstract

The main goal of this thesis is to evaluate the readiness of Poland to join the euro zone. To achieve this it was necessary to use historical method to outline the development of European monetary integration, and comparative method for comparison of macroeconomic indicators set in the convergence criteria. Further an analysis method was used in the examination of the statistical data, and the deduction method for evaluating the fulfilment of the convergence criteria. The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter is devoted to the historical development of European monetary integration from the 50s of the 20th century to the present. The second chapter focuses on the European Central Bank and the National Bank of Poland. Here, the emergence of these banks is defined together with the monetary policy strategy and instruments that these banks use to achieve their main objective, which is price stability. The last chapter deals with evaluating the readiness of Poland to join the euro zone, especially whether Poland fulfilled the convergence criteria during the reference period from 2006 to 2014. When drafting this thesis, methods of analysis determined that Poland does not fulfil all the convergence criteria, and thus cannot become a part of the euro zone so far. Poland fulfils only three criteria from the total number of five. These are price stability criterion, the criterion of long-term interest rates and government debt criterion. The last two criteria, which are public deficit and exchange rate stability criterion, are not met in Poland. Even in the medium term, Poland is not expected to meet all the criteria. The biggest problem is the public deficit criterion when the value of debt is almost twice more value than the reference value.