Predikce a analýza finanční výkonnosti výrobního podniku

Abstract

Submitted work deals with the evaluation of the manufacturing firm’s financial performance and the alternative of its future estimate. The aim of this work was the prediction and the analysis of the financial efficiency of certain manufacturing company. Such analysis was concentrated on the economic result’s measurement following the indicator of Economic Value Added (EVA). By using the method of functional decomposition the analysis of the impact of an absolute divergence for the first and the last level of decomposition were carried out and its results were properly interpreted. In order to predict the financial efficiency it was necessary to accomplish the decomposition of EVA as a nonlinear function of the financial ratio indicators. On the basis of historical quarterly time lines Vasickuv mean-revision model (Arithmetic and Geometrical form) of the development of individual financial indicators was statistically estimated by means of the method of the smallest squares. In order to get the final prediction the simulative technique Monte Carlo including Choleskeho algorithm was used. Also the simulation’s parameters (mean value, VaR, quantiles) were calculated. These parameters give information about possible future development of EVA’s indicator. The alternative of the prediction of the indicator of Economic Value Added was verified thanks to the real quarterly data of the company.