Srovnání vývoje míry inflace v zemích Visegrádské skupiny pomocí ekonometrické analýzy

Abstract

This diploma thesis compares the inflation rate development in Visegrad Group`s economies by econometric analysis in years 1997 2010. So the thesis is focused on inflation rate in Czech, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The thesis involves the definition of the harmonized index of consumer prices, a form of calculation, data collection and the differences between him and the national price indices. It describes the inflation rate development in individual economies with a focus on consumer basket items. There is a correlation analysis between inflation rate development of individual sections of the consumer basket and the development of the overall inflation rate, inflation rates analysis of the relationship by using a vector autoregression model, the analysis of Granger-causality and the impulse response. Over thirteen years the inflation rate in the economies had a decreasing trend. The objective of all central banks is ensuring and maintaining price stability. Given the total synchronous development in areas that are most involved in the consumer basket (food and fuel), we can also expect growth the inflation rate in all economies. Exposure of certain past values to inflation rate development corresponds to the reciprocal trade relations between countries. Granger-causality is present in most of the possible combinations of relations between countries. Interesting is the position of Hungary, the development of its inflation rate improves accuracy forecast in all of the other economies, but on the contrary, this relationship does not apply.