Determinanty inflačních očekávání evropských spotřebitelů v době globálních krizí

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the determinants of European consumers’ inflation expectations, with a particular focus on heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups. The analysis focuses on a panel of 24 European Union member states over the period 2005–2025, using monthly data. The theoretical section describes the framework for the formation of inflation expectations, with an emphasis on the behavioral dimension. The empirical analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel regression model, supplemented by a graphical analysis of the evolution of expectations across sociodemographic groups. The results clearly show that inflation expectations are shaped by the simultaneous influence of price, macroeconomic, and behavioral determinants, with perceived past inflation being the strongest factor. At the same time, it was found that economically more vulnerable groups react more strongly to immediately observable price signals, while groups with greater information capacity react to aggregate macroeconomic indicators. The analysis suggests a need for a differentiated communication strategy by the European Central Bank targeted at specific segments of the European public.