Ekonometrické modelování konvergence ekonomické úrovně regionů Itálie

Abstract

The subject of interest of the diploma thesis is the economic level convergence across Italian regions in the period 1891–2017. The aim of the thesis is to present a comprehensive overview of the historical development of the economic level of Italian regions in the period 1891–2017 and to evaluate the process of economic convergence of these regions using methods of econometric modelling. The pivotal method of investigation is econometric modelling. Two types of models for cross-sectional data were estimated: absolute beta-convergence model and spatial autoregressive model. The method of descriptive data analysis and the historical method were also used. The econometric analysis is based on data on regional real GDP per capita from reconstructed historical dataset for the period 1891–2009 and from official ISTAT statistics for the period 1995–2017. The whole time period was divided into several shorter time spans according to the important milestones in the Italian history. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, it was discovered that there were periods of convergence, divergence and stagnation. Two most remarkable periods were identified: the divergence era which started at the beginning of WWI and continued through interwar period until the end of WWII and the convergence era during post-war economic miracle in the 1950s and 1960s.