Stanovení pravděpodobnosti úpadku podniků v České republice prostřednictvím scóringového modelu

Abstract

The main objective of the master thesis is to create a scoring model that will be able to predict default of companies in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into five chapters where the first one is an introduction and the last one is a conclusion. The second chapter is focused on a methodology of financial analysis, mainly on financial ratios. The third chapter is devoted to rating and scoring models, and there are also described selected statistical methods that are often used when creating scoring models. In the end of the third chapter there are defined chosen rating and default models. The fourth chapter is focused on creating a logistic regression model which will predict default of companies in the Czech Republic. The estimation of the logistic regression model is accomplished by a statistical programme IBM SPSS 24, using data of real randomly selected companies in the Czech republic. Forward Stpewise Regression and ENTER method is used to estimate a scoring model in IBSM SPSS 24. In the end of the thesis there is a summary of the achieved results.