Vztah peněžní nabídky a akciového trhu ve Spojených státech

Abstract

The aim of this bachelor’s thesis was to evaluate the long-term relationship between the money supply and the performance of the U.S. stock market during the period 1970–2024. The theoretical section focused on the fundamental principles of the money supply and the functioning of financial markets. In the practical section, the relationship between the money supply and the S&P 500 index was analyzed using correlation analysis and Granger’s causality test. At the same time, the relationships between the S&P 500 index and selected fundamental indicators were also examined. The analysis also tracked the development of these relationships over time through sub-periods and rolling correlations. The results were subsequently placed in a broader context and interpreted using a macroeconomic description. The results showed that, in addition to fundamental factors, long-term money supply growth played a significant role in the performance of the S&P 500 index. Money supply expansion was a significant factor influencing the development of the U.S. stock market.