Valuation of a Company in the Beverage Industry under the Risk Terms

Abstract

In diploma thesis, we estimated the expected value of Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. at the end of 2012 by using DCF method. In the valuation processes, we used OLS method to regress the sales function, Monte Carol simulation and Cholesky decomposition to evaluate 10,000 scenarios of sales in the future for 5 years and then we made financial plans, calculated cost of capital by WACC method. In the WACC method, we calculated the cost of equity and cost of debt. Then, we used DCF method to calculate 10,000 scenarios of values of the company, the 10,000 scenarios of values were normal distributed, and we calculated the expected value of the company. At the end, we made sensitivity analysis to cost of capital and growth rates to study the changes of value distributions and expected value. We found out from the sensitivity analysis that growth rates had positive influences on the valuation of the company, while cost of capital had negative influences on the valuation of the company.