Predikce finanční výkonnosti stavební firmy pomocí simulace Monte Carlo

Abstract

The aim of this diploma thesis is to verify the predictability of the financial performance, represented for this thesis by "Earnings per share" indicator (EPS), based on real financial information sources of a particular company. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to simulate the future development of partial financial indicators which were then used to predict the development of EPS. At the beginning of this diploma thesis a brief economic characteristic and financial analysis is mentioned. Then, methods of prediction of financial performance indicators are described. The following chapter contains a prediction of the EPS using two different approaches. One includes simplifying assumption of normality of the residues and the other involves testing normality of residues and then using the inverse transformation method. In this diploma thesis the possibility to predict EPS on real data of a construction company was verified. Using the inverse transformation method resulted in a reduction of the error of prediction.