Zhodnocení vývoje příjmů veřejného zdravotního pojištění v České republice

Abstract

The aim of the bachelor thesis is to evaluate the development of revenues of public health insurance in the Czech Republic in the period from 2012 to 2022 and to analyze the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on this development. The bachelor thesis focuses on a specific form of revenue of public health insurance, namely insurance premiums. Payers of insurance premiums can be classified into four categories: employees, self-employed individuals, individuals without taxable income, and the state. The aim of the bachelor thesis is divided into two sub-goals, with the first sub-goal being the evaluation of the development of revenues of public health insurance in the years 2012-2022 according to these payer categories. To fulfill this first sub-goal, the method of time series dynamics was used, and it was found that the amount of premiums showed an increasing trend in the observed years. The amount of premiums paid by individual payers developed with varying dynamics, with the highest rate of increase observed in premiums paid by the state. The selected macroeconomic factors in the bachelor thesis were the unemployment rate and the average wage level. The subject of investigation was how the development of revenues from public health insurance depends on changes in these factors. For this investigation and to achieve the main goal, correlation and regression methods were utilized. The result of the bachelor thesis was the finding that if the unemployment rate increases, insurance premium revenues decrease, and if the average wage level increases, insurance premium revenues increase. Changes in the average wage level have a dominant influence on the amount of collected insurance premiums compared to changes in the unemployment rate. The second sub-goal of the bachelor thesis was to conduct a sensitivity analysis and thereby create a comprehensive picture of how revenues from public health insurance are sensitive to changes in the unemployment rate and changes in the average wage level. To determine sensitivity, the year 2022 was chosen, and the analysis revealed that an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points would lead to a decrease in insurance premium revenues by approximately 4.2 billion CZK. Furthermore, an increase in the average wage level by 0.5 percentage points would result in an increase in insurance premium revenues by approximately 2.5 billion CZK. For clarity of results, tables and graphs were prepared, and the "Data Analysis - Regression" add-in in MS Excel was utilized to construct regression models.