Dopad daňového zatížení na velikost stínové ekonomiky v zemích EU

Abstract

The aim of this thesis was to analyze the impact of the tax burden on the size of the shadow economy in the European Union countries. A partial objective was to assess whether this relationship varies depending on the economic level of individual countries, the level of the total tax burden, and the size of the shadow economy, as well as the role played by the structure of the tax burden. The analysis was conducted using panel data from 27 European Union countries for the period 2003–2022. To analyze the relationships, panel regression analysis with fixed effects and a between-effects were utilized. The results showed that the tax burden has a statistically significant impact on the size of the shadow economy in the time dimension. A one percentage point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio is associated with a 0.23 percentage point decrease in the shadow economy, with this effect being more pronounced in economically less developed countries and countries with a higher level of the shadow economy. Regarding the tax structure, value-added tax and property taxes appear to be key factors over time, with the impact of VAT being consistently negative across country groups. Conversely, in the cross-sectional dimension, the relationship between the total tax quota and the shadow economy was not statistically significant, suggesting that differences between countries are determined more by other factors or the structure of the tax burden. The importance of the tax burden structure was subsequently demonstrated in the analysis of the impacts of individual tax groups, where VAT shows a positive influence on the shadow economy in the cross-section, while social security contributions show a negative one. The results indicate that reducing the shadow economy requires, above all, increasing the efficiency of tax collection, particularly VAT, as growth in revenue from this tax significantly contributes to the reduction of the shadow economy. Simultaneously, it is crucial for tax policy design to account for a country's level of economic development, as changes in taxation may trigger different responses depending on this factor. In addition to tax policy, macroeconomic and structural factors also play a significant role, suggesting the need for a comprehensive approach that includes the development of human capital and the maintenance of economic stability.